全球气候变化环境下北极航道资源发展趋势研究

Developments of Arctic Passage Resources Under Global Climate Change

首先,对北极航道文献资料进行系统整理,总结其通航历史和现状情况;然后,从全球气候变化大环境角度分析影响北极航道通航的多个环境因素,包括全球变暖、北极地区大气环流改变以及风力作用增强、冰盖本身性质的改变等;基于此,分析预测全球气候变化环境下,北极航道资源发展三个"新常态"的趋势,即"世界政治经济重心向北偏移,环北冰洋国家崛起"、"北极圈周边政治格局改变,新北极国际关系逐步建立"、"北极航道资源利用逐步常态化,北极航线贸易、船舶和人员专业化成为新特征";最后,综合分析提出我国在北极航道资源发展"新常态"下的应对策略。

Firstly,the history and status of Arctic passage were summed up based on the literatures. Then,several environmental reasons( mainly includes global warming,the change of Arctic atmosphere circulation and the stronger wind,and ice sheet changing)which impact on Arctic passage were analyzed from the perspective of global climate changes. On this basis,three'new normal'of developments of Arctic passage resources were analyzed and predicted under global climate change,such as'the shift of world's politics and economic center,and the rise of countries around the Arctic Ocean','the shift of politics around the Arctic Ocean,and new Arctic international relations are settled down','the usage of Arctic passage resources become normal and professional Arctic passage trades,ships,and workers are become new characters'. Finally,Chinese strategies were proposed for the 'new normal'of developments of Arctic passage resources through comprehensive analysis.