交通规划环评中机动车尾气影响预测方法研究

Prediction Methods of Vehicle Pollutant Exhaust in Environment Impact Assessment for Traffic Planning

针对我国目前规划环境影响评价技术导则和技术方法中均欠缺关于交通发展建设规划的空气污染物排放量计算的指导性原则和方法,以已批复的北京市"十二五"时期交通发展建设规划环评为例,探讨当中所采用的机动车尾气污染物排放量计算方法的准确性和适用性。与国内部分学者利用IVE模型计算的北京市机动车排放因子和污染物排放量进行分析比较,结果表明,采用本研究的方法在计算CO、NOx污染物排放量时产生的误差较小,虽然在排放因子的选择上存在需进一步改进的地方,但相比IVE模型计算方法,采用本研究提供的方法所需参数较少,计算方法较为简便,并且在以交通量为主要变量的条件下,可预测不同时期的污染物排放特征,更适合做为交通发展建设规划环评的通用计算方法。

According to the lack of guiding principle and method about the calculation of air pollutant emissions of transportation development planning in China's current planning environmental assessment technical guidance and methods,taking Beijing twelfth- five transportation development planning environment impact assessment as example,we studied the accuracy and applicability of motor vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions calculation methods in the assessment. Compared with the motor vehicle emission factors and pollutant emissions of Beijing calculated according to the TVE model from by some domestic scholars,calculated by the method of our study would have smaller error in the pollutant emissions of CO and THC,the larger error in the NOxpollutant emissions,so we need amend the NOxemission factors in a certain degree. But compared to IVE calculation method,the method of this research adopted requires fewer parameters,is without geographical restrictions and relatively simple thus it is more suitable as a universal calculating method for transportation development planning environment impact assessment.