中国粮食安全脆弱性评价与政策建议

Vulnerability Evaluation and Policy Suggestions of Food Security in China

粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础,是促进社会和谐稳定的重要因素。本文提出了粮食安全脆弱性的分析框架,构建了中国粮食安全脆弱性评价的指标体系,采用熵权指数法对1992-2012年中国粮食安全脆弱性进行了定量评价。结果表明:中国粮食安全敏感性、恢复力均呈现不断升高的发展趋势;中国粮食安全脆弱性总体上呈现降低的趋势,1992-1996年,脆弱性值震荡剧烈,逐渐升高,1997-2012年,该值微幅震荡并逐渐降低。最后,提出了中国粮食安全脆弱性的政策建议,具体为:加强对各类气象灾害的预报和防御;加大对粮食生产的补贴力度;防范粮食外部依赖;保证耕地资源的数量和质量。

Food security is the important foundation of national security,and is the important factor which promote social harmony and stability. This paper put forward vulnerability analysis framework of food security,constructed an indicator system of vulnerability of food security in china,and evaluated the vulnerability with entropy-light method from 1992- 2012. The results show that: The sensibility and the resilience of food security increase gradually,and the vulnerability of food security drops. The vulnerability oscillates and increases gradually from 1992- 1996,lightly oscillates and slowly drops from 1997- 2012. Finally,this paper put forward some policy suggestions of vulnerability of food security in china.