基于ARDL模型的江苏贸易开放、城市化和碳排放关系探讨

Openness to Trade,Urbanization and Carbon Emission Based on Model ARDL in Jiangsu

实证研究了贸易开放、城市化、能源消费、碳排放和经济增长的相互影响。研究结果表明:在长期关系中,能源消费对贸易开放的影响的弹性系数为正,能源消费对碳排放具有负向且显著的影响,碳排放对城市化水平的影响并不显著。在短期关系中,能源消费、经济增长、碳排放各变量对贸易开放的弹性为正,碳排放和城市化对经济增长有正向的影响,存在从贸易开放度到城市化到经济增长单向因果关系且存在从能源消费到经济增长的双向因果关系,存在经济增长到城市化双向因果关系。

This paper proposed the mechanism of trade liberalization,level of urbanization,energy consumption,carbon emission and economic growth in Jiangsu by using the 1990- 2012 time series data and Cointegration test,Granger causality test and ARDL methods. The study results show as follows: Energy consumption shows positive impact on trade liberalization and negative impact on carbon emission in the long term. Energy consumption,economic growth and carbon emission show positive impact on the trade liberalization,while carbon emission and urbanization show positive impact on economic growth in the short term. Granger causality studies show that there is unidirectional causality from openness to trade to urbanization to economic growth. There is co-directional causality from energy consumption to economic growth. And the direction causal relationship between economic growth to urbanization exists.