基于引力模型的山东省城市经济联系格局演变

Evolution of Economic Interconnections between Cities of Shandong Province Based on Gravity Model

城市之间经济联系是区域经济发展的重要研究内容。本文采用区域间相互作用的引力模型,选取2002、2007和2012年的就业人口数、GDP以及山东省主要城镇公路里程等数据,对山东省17城市的经济联系量、城市间经济联系隶属度进行测算。本文的研究结论包括:山东省各主要城市间的经济联系量绝对量保持增长;各城市的占总体比重隶属度结构在2002-2007年存在较大变化,2007-2012年基本不变。济南、淄博、威海等城市比重下降,与其他城市联系总体有所减弱;菏泽、济宁、聊城、临沂比重上升;主要形成"济南-泰安、淄博-济南-东营-潍坊;烟台-威海市;枣庄-临沂市"三大经济联系紧密带的格局。从山东省总体空间范围来看,中、北部城市间联系紧密,而西部和沿海城市之间联系较弱。本文最后对山东省的新型城镇化战略及区域经济一体化发展提出了相关启示建议。

Economic interconnection between cities is an important research topic of regional economic development. This paper used the interactional gravity model between regions to study the economic interconnections and economic subordinate degrees between 17 cities in Shandong province by analyzing their employed population,GDP of 2002,2007,2012,town highway mileage and other related data. The conclusions of the research are as follows: Firstly,the absolute amount of economic interconnections between cities kept growing,and their economic subordinate degrees changed a lot during 2002 to 2007,but kept unchanged during 2007 to 2012. Secondly,the economic subordinate degrees of Jinan,Zibo,Weihai and Yantai decreased,and their interconnection with other cities weakened,while the economic subordinate degrees of Heze,Jining,Liaocheng and Linyi increased. There are three central cities agglomerations,including Jinan-Taian-Zibo-Jinan-Dongying-Weifang agglomeration,Yantai-Weihai agglomeration,and Zaozhuang-Linyi agglomeration. Thirdly,generally speaking,the central and northern cities in Shandong province are closely interconnected,while the western and coastal cities are weakly interconnected. Finally,it makes suggestions of the new-type urbanization strategy and regional economic integration for Shandong province.