中国碳排放、清洁能源与经济增长的实证研究

An Empirical Research Based on China's Carbon Emissions,Clean Energy and Economic Growth

本文利用中国1985-2013年的时间序列数据,选取清洁能源、碳排放和经济增长3个变量,建立了相应的VAR(3)模型,检验了这3个变量之间的因果关系,运用广义脉冲响应函数分析了变量间的动态响应关系。我国经济增长受外部某一正向冲击后,会导致碳排放的增加,起初增加幅度大,后期增长幅度小,导致环境质量的降低。而我国清洁能源受外部某一正向冲击后,起初会导致碳排放的增加,后期会减少碳排放,从而改善环境质量。因此,把握住清洁能源与碳排放之间的关系,积极推进绿色GDP的发展,可以有效降低碳排放。

In this paper,we used the time series data of China from 1985 to 2013,and selected clean energy,carbon emissions and economic growth as variables. Then we established the corresponding VAR( 3) model,tested the causal relationship between the three variables and analyzed the dynamic response relationship between variables by using the generalized impulse response functions. After a positive impact from outside,China's economic growth will lead to the increase of carbon emissions,a large increase at first,later small increase,resulting in a loss of environmental quality. And clean energy after a positive impact from outside,will lead to increase carbon emissions at first,later it will reduce carbon emissions. Therefore,we should grasp the relationship between clean energy and carbon emissions,and actively promote the development of green GDP. That can effectively reduce carbon emissions.