中国CO_2排放量与产业结构优化的互动关系研究

Study on Mutual Relationship Between CO_2 Emissions and Industrial Structure of China

当前中国面临严峻的碳减排压力,产业结构作为影响CO_2排放的重要因素,成为减排的重要政策着落点,倒逼产业结构转型升级成为减排政策中的重要手段。然而不同的研究对二者之间的关系有不同的结论,一些研究认为产业结构的转型升级已对碳减排产生了显著的促进效果,另一些研究认为效果仍未凸显。本文在对CO_2排放量及产业结构优化指标进行选取和计算的基础上,对中国1991-2013年产业结构优化与CO_2排放量进行了因果关系检验及协整关系分析,结果显示:产业结构优化与CO_2排放量存在长期稳定的互动关系,且产业结构合理化和高级化对减排的影响在长短期内不同。

Carbon emission is one of the most important issues in China. As one of the most important influence factor,industrial structure is becoming an essential policy focus. However,different researches have different results. Based on the calculation of carbon dioxide emission and industrial structure optimization,this study uses the co-integration test and the Granger causality with the data from 1991 to 2013,to verify the interactive relationslicp between them and provide theortical basis for emissions rcduction and industrial structrial structure adjustment.