气候变化和适应对中国粮食产量的影响——基于省级面板模型的实证研究

The Impact of Climate Change on China's Crop Productions:An Empirical Study of Provincial Panel Data

通过构建全国三种主要粮食作物的省级面板模型,检验了气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明,气候变化对粮食产量的影响既有线性的,也有非线性的。就全国平均而言,水稻亩产产量对积温和降水都呈较显著的倒U型曲线关系,降水对于小麦和玉米也呈显著的倒U型关系。2000年代相对于1980年代,气候变化导致水稻增产1.7~4.1个百分点,但其对小麦和玉米亩产的综合影响很小。分析表明全国七个区域三种作物对气温和降水的弹性差异十分明显。分析了两种适应(自然适应和人为适应)在气候变化对农作物影响中的作用,从而区分开不同的适应机制及其对产量的影响方向与程度。

This paper uses a provincial panel data model to study the impacts of climate change on three main crop productions( rice,wheat and corn),estimates the linear and non- linear elasticity. Results reveal that the impacts to crops of climate change are both linear and non- linear. The temperature( HDD) and precipitation have a significant inverted- U shape for rice production( kg per unit area); while the precipitation has a significant inverted- U shape for both of the wheat and corn production. Compared to the1980 s,the comprehensive impact of climate change in 2000 s has caused a decline of 1. 7 ~ 4. 1 points for rice production; However,the impacts to wheat and rice are very small. Then this paper further explores the seven regions,and finds that the precipitation and HDD have very different impacts for different regions. Furthermore,this paper studies two kinds of adaptations,the natural adaptation and the human adaptation,and explores their different adaptation mechanisms,directions and specific extents of their impacts.