澜沧江上游高山峡谷区粮食安全状况及其变化特征分析——以德钦县为例

Analysis of Food Security Situation and Its Characteristics of Change in Mountain and Ravine Region of Upper Reaches of Lancang River: A Case of Deqin County

本文利用德钦县1978-2013年农业经济统计资料,采用主成分分析法(SPSS)分析了德钦县粮食安全现状及其变化特征,并揭示其主要驱动因子。研究结果表明:1德钦县粮食安全变化可划分为4个阶段,1978-1986年贫困向温饱过渡阶段、1987-1998年温饱向小康过渡阶段、1999-2005年小康向温饱过渡阶段和2006-2013年温饱向小康过渡阶段;2经济因素是影响粮食安全变化的主驱动力,使粮食安全由自给自足向以非粮收入为主导的状态转变;3粮食产量是粮食安全变化的另一主要驱动因子,直接影响人均有粮;4国家和云南省农业和林业等相关政策是影响粮食安全变化的重要驱动力,控制着种植结构、收入结构的发展变化趋势,促进农村劳务结构的调整。

Taking Deqin County relevant agricultural economic statistics from 1978 to 2013 as basis,this paper adopts principal component analysis to analyze food security situation and its characteristics in Deqincounty and the main impact factors are discovered. The main conclusions are found: 1there are four stages of food security change in Deqin county. They are transition stage from poverty to subsistence from 1978 to 1986,transition stage from subsistence to easy-living standard from 1987 to 1998,transition stage from easyliving standard to subsistence from 1999 to 2005 and transition stage from subsistence to easy-living standard from 2006 to 2013. 2Economical factor is the major driving force of food security change,making food security self-sufficiency turns into dominated by non-grain income. 3Grain crops output is another factor to affect food security change,and it affects per capita grain possession directly. 4 the relative national and provincial policies on agricultural and forestry are important driving forces of food security change that controll the changing tendencies of agricultural planting structure and income structure,and promote structural adjustment of rural labor.