中国农业碳生态类型区时空演化分析

Spatial-temporal Difference of China's Agricultural Carbon Ecological Patterns

本文从地均净碳汇和地均农业产值两个维度入手,建立碳生态农业评价指标,并在此基础上对我国县域农业类型区进行划分,并对1991-2011年间各类型区转换机制进行剖析。研究表明:1从总量上看,碳生态强可持续区域总体变化不大,碳生态弱可持续区域变化较大。2强碳生态可持续区存在正反馈强化过程,碳生态不可持续区则相反存在负反馈,或者称之为"碳生态恶化陷阱"。3处于弱碳生态I、II类型区的县级单元,其转型路径在不同条件下存在分岔。政府采取农业生态补贴或者提供农业技术升级支持,则有助于其趋向于碳生态友好环境。

Using agricultural net carbon sink and output,this article attempts to establish the agricultural carbon ecological evaluation system and analyze the patterns of agricultural carbon zones. Moreover,by using Markov probability transfer matrix,the conversion mechanism in 1991- 2011 among these four patterns is revealed. Research shows that: 1the area of ecological strong sustainable zones showed decreasing from 1991 to 2011. However,the area of ecological weak sustainable zones increased. 2A positive feedback process exists in strong carbon ecological sustainable regions,while a negative feedback,also can be called as'carbon ecological trap'exists in weak ones. 3 The government should take the responsibility to provide subsidies and promote agricultural technology,thus to encourage farmers to retains the eco- friendly way of agricultural production.