产业结构变迁对低碳经济发展的贡献——以德国为例

Contribution to the Low-carbon Transition from Industrial Structure Evolution:Empirical Research of Germany

经济体中不同产业所需要的生产要素投入产出不同,导致其对环境的影响不同,因此产业结构变化将影响低碳经济的发展。通过对德国低碳经济转型的系统探究,进一步发现并验证了产业结构变迁推动低碳经济发展的阶段性特征:在工业化向后工业化转变的过程中,产业结构变迁对低碳经济发展的贡献主要通过第三产业比重的不断增加实现;而在后工业化时期,以技术进步和效率提升为依托的三次产业内部结构调整,尤其是第二产业内部的低碳化,成为低碳转型的核心推动力。这启示中国的低碳转型必须将第二产业的低碳化作为长期战略,而将提高第三产业比重作为近期低碳转型的主要措施之一。

The variety of input and output of production factors results in different environmental impact,thus the change of industrial structure will influence the development of low-carbon economics. With the systematic research on Germany's low-carbon transition,the staged characteristics of influences to the transition from industrial structure evolution were found: in the transition period from industrialization towards post-industrialization,the dominant contribution that industrial structure evolution provides to low-carbon transition is the continuing increase of tertiary industry's proportion; while in the post-industrialization period,the internal structure adjustment in the three industries resulted from technology advances and efficiency improvement,especially the de-carbonization in the secondary industry,become the core impetus. This indicates that for the low-carbon transition of China,the de-carbonization of secondary industry should be taken as a long-term strategy,while increasing the proportion of tertiary industry should be taken as major measure for the recent period.