四川省能源消费碳排放影响因素分解研究

Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption of Sichuan Province

结合《省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》,对四川省2005-2013年能源消费碳排放量进行测算,表明该阶段四川省能源消费碳排放量呈稳定增长态势。利用LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数)分解方法,将能源消费碳排放分解为人口、人均GDP、产业结构、能耗强度、能源消费结构五方面效应,对四川省2006-2013年碳排放增量进行分解研究,表明该阶段人均GDP对四川省碳排放量具有强烈拉动作用,其次为产业结构,能耗强度对四川省能源消费碳排放具有强烈抑制作用,而人口、能源消费结构逐年效应有正有负,贡献度绝对值较小。根据上述结论,针对性地对四川省"十三五"期间控制碳排放提出了建议。

Based on The Compilation Guidelines for Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventory( pilot edition),carbon emission from energy consumption of Sichuan province from 2005 to 2013 were calculated. The results show that carbon emission from energy consumption of Sichuan province presented a steady increase in this phase. According to the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index( LMDI),the carbon emission were decomposed into five effects,i. e.,population,per capita GDP,industrial structure,energy consumption intensity and energy consumption structure. The decomposition research on carbon emission of Sichuan province from 2006 to 2013 shows that per capita GDP,followed by the industrial structure,has exerted a strong driving influence on carbon emission of this province during this period,while the energy consumption intensity has greatly curbed the carbon emission. The year- by- year effect of population and energy consumption structure is now positive now negative with a relatively small absolute value of contribution. According to the above-mentioned conclusion,this paper offers targeted recommendations on emission reduction in Sichuan province during 2016 to 2020 when the 13 th Five Year Plan is going to be implemented.