基于LMDI分解模型的中国居民生活间接碳排放特征分析

Analysis of characteristics of Chinese residents' indirect carbon emissions in daily life based on LMDI decomposition model

进入21世纪,温室气体排放引发的全球变暖等问题成为世界关注的焦点,长期以来我国控制碳排放的政策手段多集中于工业生产领域,对居民生活领域碳排放控制涉及较少。基于此,本文使用LMDI模型计算并分析了2000-2015年间我国居民生活间接碳排放的驱动因素,结果显示:(1)城乡居民人均生活间接碳排放驱动因素中,消费碳排放强度因素、消费水平因素、经济水平因素具有同向的碳排放驱动效应,消费结构因素、城乡消费比重因素、城乡结构因素具有反向的碳排放驱动效应;(2)经济水平的提高是城乡居民生活间接碳排放的主要推动力,考虑到与碳排放强度相关的技术趋于稳定,短期内难以取得突破,因此居民人均生活间接碳排放量及总生活碳排放量的上升趋势难以逆转;(3)从生活消费特点上对比,城镇居民相比农村居民有更有利于碳减排的生活消费结构,这一点由消费结构因素、城乡结构因素的对比得以印证,但从绝对值上看,城镇居民人均生活间接碳排放值仍显著大于农村居民,因此城镇化进程将显著推动全国居民生活碳排放量的上升。本文研究可为精细化控制居民生活碳排放的政策制定与实施提供科学参考。

In the 21 st century,global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and other issues become a focus of world attention.China's policy instruments are more concentrated in the field of industrial production,less concerned on the inhabitant living area in a long term. Based on this,we use LMDI decomposition model to calculate and analyze the driver factors of indirect carbon emissions in2000-2015.The result showed:(1). In the driving factors of per capita inhabitants ' indirect carbon emissions of urban and rural residents,carbon emission intensity of consumption and consumption level have the same effect direction,consumption structure,proportion of urban and rural consumption and urban and rural structure have the reverse effect to carbon emission.(2).The improvement of economic level is the main driving force of urban and rural inhabitants indirect carbon emissions,and taking into account the technology related to carbon emissions is gradually stable,it is difficult to make breakthrough in the short term,so the upward trend of per capita indirect carbon emissions and residents' total living carbon emissions is difficult to reverse.(3).In terms of living consumption characteristics,urban residents have the better consumption structure,it can be proved by consumption structure factor and urban and rural structure factor,but in terms of numerical number,urban residents' living indirect carbon emissions are significantly higher than those of rural residents,therefore the process of urbanization will significantly promote the country's inhabitants living carbon emissions. This result can provide scientific reference to formulate and implement policy to better control inhabitants' living carbon emissions.