国际油价波动对中国大气环境的影响研究

Impacts of international oil price fluctuation on China's atmospheric environment

本文利用2012年投入产出表构造了一套动态CGE模型。使用该模型模拟了国际油价变动对大气环境的影响。研究发现:油价下跌会严重恶化当前的大气污染问题;国际油价上升导致国内石油和天然气蓬勃发展;油价下跌对大部分行业的影响明显大于油价上升的影响;国际油价变动导致名义GDP同方向与其变动,实际GDP与其反方向变动;油价波动会对CPI带来同方向影响,其中下跌时影响更为显著。基于上述结论提出一些建议:(1)提高中国原油储备量。(2)广泛开展国际油田的合作开采。(3)提高中国在国际的原油定价权。(4)提高能源利用效率。(5)培育风能、水能和潮汐能等新能源的发展。

A dynamic CGE model is constructed on the basis of input-output table in 2012. Employing this model,this paper simulates the impacts of oil price on air environment. It is found that oil price slump will aggravate air pollution problem in China. The rise in oil price will make domestic oil and gas sectors boom. Oil price slump will have more significant effects on sector output than price expansion. Oil price variation will make nominal GDP change in the same direction,while real GDP change in counter direction. Oil price fluctuation will make CPI wave with the same direction,but the effect is more obvious in the oil decline scenario. Based on these conclusions,some suggestions are proposed:(1)Raise crude oil reserves in China.(2)Expand international cooperation about exploitation of oilfield.(3)Enhance the pricing power on international crude oil.(4)Advance technology and improve energy efficiency.(5)Foster the development of new energy,such as wind,water,tidal energy and so on.