基于主要经济指标的城市建设用地规模预测模型——以广东省为例

Construction land scale prediction model based on the major economic indicators:A case study of Guangdong Province

随着经济的发展和人口的增长,建设用地规模不断扩大。本文采用线性回归分析法,选取GDP、人口规模、固定资产投资额和年份四个因素,分析了广东省1981—2000年间各类建设用地以及建设用地总规模与四个因素的相关性,并拟合了一元线性和三元线性预测模型。预测结果表明:除其他用地外,建设用地规模与四个因素存在显著的相关性,且以固定资产投资为自变量的一元线性模型和以GDP、人口规模、固定资产投资额为自变量的三元线性模型的模拟结果较好。由于建设用地的研究方法和影响因素较多,本研究只采用一元、多元线性回归模型法,选择部分影响因素,构建建设用地规模预测模型,旨在为制定建设用地供应计划,提高建设用地节约利用,建设用地高效管理提供基础参考依据。

With the development of economy and population growth,the construction land scale expands unceasingly.In this paper,linear regression analysis was used,and four factors were selected,that is,GDP,population scale,fixed assets investment and year.The correlation between the scale of construction land of Guangdong province from 1981 to 2000 and those four factors were analyzed. Simple linear regression and multiple linear prediction models were established. Prediction results showed that: in addition to the other land,there were significant correlations between construction land scale and the four factors.Results indicated that models of fixed assets as an independent variable and the ternary linear model were better.There are many research methods and influencing factors on construction land.In this study,only simple linear regression and multiple linear regression model were used,part of influencing factors were selected,and construction land scale prediction model were built.The aim of this paper is to provide a basic reference for making the construction land supply plan,improving the economical utilization of land used and construction land efficient management.