“十三五”中国绿色增长路径识别分析

The path of China's green growth in the 13th Five Year Plan period

"十三五"时期中国面临保持经济持续增长和资源环境约束趋紧的双重压力,中国对绿色增长需求日益迫切。本文首先从相对绿色增长和绝对绿色增长两个角度,通过将"十三五"规划指标目标与绿色增长指标的趋势外推结果进行比较发现,国家规划确定的绿色增长相关指标相对保守,基于历史趋势,绿色增长的大部分指标均可以甚至提前达到既定目标,但这并不意味着绿色增长在"十三五"期间能达到较高水平。其次,根据要素生产率提升来源于产业间调整和产业内增长的理论框架,本文分别讨论了农业、工业、消费部门和贸易部门的绿色增长路径。农业部门绿色增长的重点在于提升农业用水效率,改进化肥施用方式和畜禽养殖模式等。工业部门的绿色增长潜力体现在重点行业的过剩产能控制和节能减排,传统制造业的绿色化改造和技术创新以及工业结构绿色调整上。消费部门的绿色增长需要采取措施激励政府采购、交通、建筑的绿色化。贸易部门则需要提升关键行业的资源环境效率,加快贸易结构的绿色调整。第三,根据地区经济发展特征,将全国31个省市划分为四大区域。其中,高要素投入、高要素生产率地区要进一步加强能源资源集约利用和总量控制。低要素投入、高要素生产率地区要通过优化资源配置,率先形成绿色生产和消费模式。低要素投入、低要素生产率地区,关键在于严守生态保护红线,限制高能耗、高污染行业的盲目扩张。高要素投入、低要素生产率地区要推进现有资源整合改造,优化产业集聚和布局。最后,提出通过理顺能源资源价格机制、构建绿色化财税体系、完善环境保护制度体系以及强化绿色科技创新等促进绿色增长的政策建议。

During the '13th five-year plan' period,China is challenged by the need of keeping economy growing constantly and underling the constraint of the reduction of resource environment,the demand of green growth of China is becoming more imperative. This article firstly from the aspects of relative green growth and absolute green growth,by comparing the indicator targets of 13 th Five Year Plan and the extrapolated results of the tendency of green growth indicator,finding that the green growth indicators which were determined by national planning are relatively conservative. Based on the history tendency,most of the green growth indicators could be reached on time and even in advance,but this fact not means green growth can achieve to a higher level during 13 th Five Year Plan.Secondly,Based on the theoretical framework that increased factor productivity is from of inter-industry adjustment and intra-industry growth,this article discusses the green growth paths of agriculture,industry,the consumer sector and the trade sector respectively. The emphases of agriculture sector are to improve the efficiency of agricultural water use,improve fertilizer application and livestock breeding patterns,etc. The green growth potentials of industry sector are reflected in controlling the excess capacity and energy conservation and emission reduction in key industries,green transformation and technological innovation of traditional manufacturing industry,and green adjustment of industrial restructuring. Consumer sector needs to take actions to encourage green ways in government procurement,transportation and building areas,while the trade sector needs to improve the efficiency of resource environment in key industries and speed up the green adjustment of trade structure. Thirdly,31 provinces and municipalities are divided into four regions according to the characteristics of regional economic development. Among them,high-factor input and high-factor productivity areas need to further strengthen the intensive use of energy resources and total control. Low factor input and high factor productivity regions are supposed to optimize the allocation of resources,and form green production and consumption patterns in advance. Low factor input and low factor productivity areas,the key is to strictly observe the red line of ecological protection,limit the blind expansion of high energy consumption and high pollution industry. High factor input and low factor productivity areas need to promote the integration of existing resources optimize industrial agglomeration and layout. Finally,the policy recommendations to promote green growth include rationalizing the price mechanism of energy resources,building a green fiscal and taxation system,improving the environmental protection system and strengthening the green technology innovation,etc.