中国财政支出最优规模比较研究——基于变参数状态空间模型

Comparative study on financial expenditure optimal scale in China:based on variable parameter state space model

文章以C-D生产函数为理论基础,选取1978~2011年数据,采用变参数状态空间模型来研究我国预算内财政支出和综合财政支出的理论最优规模,选用卡尔曼滤波法估算动态的财政支出最优规模,并与财政支出实际最优规模相比较。研究发现:第一,1990~1996年预算内财政支出实际最优规模与理论最优规模差距逐年加大,之后差距逐年减小,2011年预算内财政支出实际最优规模高于理论最优规模。第二,综合财政支出实际最优规模围绕理论综合财政最优规模上下波动,1995年达最低点,之后逐年上升,直至2011年仍低于理论最优。

Based on C-D production function as the theoretical basis,this article selected the variable parameter state space model and Kalman filtering method to estimate theory optimal scale of the budget estimate in financial expenditure and comprehensive financial expenditure and compared with the actual expenditure scale. The results showed that: First,budget expenditure actual optimal scale and the optimal scale gap theory enlarged year by year between the year of 1990 and 1996,then the gap decreased,and budget expenditure actual optimal scale theory was higher than the optimal scale in 2011. Secord,comprehensive financial actual optimal scale spending around theory consolidated financial optimal scale fluctuate and reach bottom in 1995,then raised year by year,and until 2011 it was lower than the optimal theory.