1957—2012年讨赖河流域潜在蒸发量变化

Potential Evaporation in the Taolaihe River Basin during 1957-2012

在气象观测数据基础上,运用数理统计方法对讨赖河流域1957—2012年潜在蒸发量变化的研究表明:(1)讨赖河流域潜在蒸发量的季节变化不尽相同,秋、冬季潜在蒸发量20世纪60、70年代偏少,80、90年代及2000年后偏多;春、夏季潜在蒸发量60、80年代偏高、90年代及2000年以后偏低,年和湿季变化趋势相似,均表现为60—80年代偏低,90年代及2000年以后偏高。(2)就年际变化而言,年和湿季潜在蒸发量的变化趋势较为相似,季节潜在蒸发量均表现为增加趋势,夏季增幅最大,秋季最小。(3)各季节和年序列均存在10~15年的短周期变化及26~28年的长周期变化。(4)流域春、夏、秋、冬以及年和湿季潜在蒸发量分别在1995、2000、1984、1980、1997年和1992年突变增加,并通过了0.01的显著性水平检验;干季潜在蒸发量经历了两次突变增加,分别发生在1980年和1995年。

In this paper,using meteorological data of 2 stations during 1957-2012in the Taolaihe River Basin,we analyzed the inter-decadal and inter-annual change of potential evaporation by linear trends and the 5-year trend of sliding,tested climate mutations on Mann-Kedall method,studied the cycle to climate change in wavelet analysis,the conclusions are following:(1)autumn and winter potential evaporation are relatively lower in1960s and1970s,but abundant in1980s,1990s and after 2000,while potential evaporation in spring and summer are also abundant during 1960s and1980s,and lower in1990s and after 2000.In addition,variation for annual and wet season potential evaporation are relatively lower in 1960s,1970s and 1980s,but abundant in 1990s and after 2000;(2)variation in annual and wet season potential evaporation tended to increase,which each season potential evaporation also has an obvious increase trend,and the largest increase occurred in summer,autumn followed;(3)seasonal and annual potential evaporation variation,there are about10-years,15-years and above 26-28-years of cycle during 1957-2012;(4)mutation increase of the potential evaporation happened in the years of 1995,2000,1984,1980,1997,1992 for spring,summer,autumn,winter,annual and wet seasons,and what′s more,only the dry season potential evaporation experienced two mutation increase,respectively,in 1980 and 1995.