新疆旅游发展驱动因子

Driving Factors of Xinjiang Tourism Development

利用新疆2001—2012年的统计资料及相关社会经济数据,从社会经济条件、基础设施、公共服务水平、政策因素、生态环境、旅游资源赋存度、旅游服务能力等7个面构建新疆旅游发展驱动因子指标体系。运用Delphi法、相关分析和主成分分析相结合的方法,定量地诊断出新疆旅游发展的驱动因子。结果表明:社会经济条件、旅游资源赋存度、基础设施、公共服务水平、旅游服务能力是影响新疆旅游发展的5类主要动因,社会危机事件是制约新疆旅游发展最为关键的因子,这一研究为新疆旅游业的转型升级和可持续发展提供一定借鉴意义。

Based on tourism development and socio-economic statistical data of Xinjiang from2001 to 2012,the driving factor index system of Xinjiang tourism development is built,including socio-economic conditions,the state of infrastructure,public service level,policies,ecological environment,tourism service capacity and the storage of tourism resources.Based on Delphi method,principal component analysis and correlation analysis,the driving factors of Xinjiang tourism development are analyzed quantitatively.The results show that socio-economic conditions,the storage of tourism resources,the state of infrastructure,the public service level and tourism service capacity are five main motives which affect Xinjiang tourism development,and social crisis is the most critical restricting factor.The study will provide certain reference for the transformation and sustainable development of Xinjiang tourism.