水资源约束下的河西走廊城市经济脆弱性时空演变及其影响因素

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Urban Economic Vulnerability and Influence Factors in the Hexi Corridor Region:Restriction of Water Resources

城市经济脆弱性作为当前脆弱性研究中的重要领域,为人-地系统耦合研究提供了新的视角,并为城市可持续健康发展提供有益的决策支持和管理方法。依据城市经济脆弱性内涵,基于暴露度、敏感性、适应能力构建了城市经济脆弱性评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法评价河西走廊地区及区域内五市的城市经济脆弱性,并采用障碍度模型识别影响区域城市经济脆弱性变化的因素。结果显示:(1) 2006—2015年,河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性呈现出先曲折下降(2006—2011年)再波动上升趋势(2012—2015年);(2)河西走廊地区的城市经济脆弱性具有明显的空间特征,经历了东西高、中部低到整体较高的演变过程;(3)阻碍河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性降低的障碍因子由适应能力逐步转变为暴露度。针对河西走廊地区各市主要障碍因子,提出针对性优化措施。

The vulnerability analysis originated from natural disasters research,while being applied in human-land integrated system gradually. Then economic vulnerability was proposed by some researchers,which means the strong instability of an area’s economy development,sensitive to changes or disturbances outside and with a significant loss. As an important part in current vulnerability research,the urban economic vulnerability provides a new perspective for human-land system,also provide available reference for decision making and management for sustainable and healthy urban development. According to the conception of vulnerability,this paper established an index system,including three components of exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity,to evaluate the urban economic vulnerability in Hexi Corridor region and its five cities. The vulnerability was evaluated and some obstacle factors hindering vulnerability’s reduction were analyzed by entropy TOPSIS. The results are not only referenced for guiding Hexi Corridor’s sustainable development,but also enrich urban vulnerability connotation. They show that:( 1) Stage characteristics of Hexi Corridor’s urban economic vulnerability is obvious in 2006-2015,which shows a downward trend in 2006-2011 and an increasing trend in 2012-2015;( 2) The urban economic vulnerability of Hexi Corridor is also characterised by spatial distribution which experienced from higher in east and west,lower in middle to overall high;( 3) The obstacle factors gradually translate from adaptability to exposure;( 4) Considering the major obstacles in each city of Hexi Corridor,targeted optimization measures are suggested,provides references to Hexi Corridor’s sustainable development.