体育赛事与举办地城市发展的耦合时序演化及影响因素研究

Research on Coupling Time Series Evolution and Influencing Factors of Sports Events and Host City Development

选择环海南岛国际公路自行车赛这一洲际2.HC级体育赛事,以2006-2017年12届环岛赛统计数据与城市发展统计数据为原始数据,通过分析构建体育赛事与城市发展评价指标体系,借鉴物理学中的耦合模型,从定量的角度分析体育赛事与举办地城市发展的耦合协调关系,为进一步办好国际体育赛事提供理论指导。研究结果显示:1)环岛赛发展系统与城市发展系统之间存在显著相关性,系统要素之间相互作用、相互影响,具有显著耦合特征;2)环岛赛与城市发展虽然综合发展水平不一致,但总体均呈波动上升趋势,两系统要素间互相影响、互相作用对整个系统发展水平的提升具有一定的推动作用;3)两系统之间的耦合度和耦合协调度逐年提升,以2014年为分水岭,实现了由严重失调到中级协调的转变,但新一轮的政策红利与城市发展为环岛赛发展水平的提升提供更多的资源与条件,从而将进一步推动环岛赛举办城市发展水平的提高;4)耦合协调度的影响因素分析表明,旅游收入与全社会固定资产投资对耦合协调度的影响较大,第三产业从业人数、城市绿化覆盖率、城市GDP等也具有较为显著的相关性,不同因素之间的综合作用促进体育赛事与城市发展耦合协调度的不断提高。

The paper selects the Intercontinental 2.HC-class road cycling event'Tour of Hainan' as example, and takes the statistical data of 12 Tour of Hainan from 2006 to 2017 and urban developmental statistics as the original data.The paper constructsthe evaluation index system of sports events and urban development through analysis, and uses the coupling model in physicsto analyze the coupling and coordinatingrelation between the sports events and the host city development from a quantitative perspective, and further provides theoretical guidance for better hosting the sports events in the future. The results show that: 1) There is a signi?cant correlation between the development system of Tour of Hainanand the urban developmental system. There is interaction between system elements with signi?cant coupling characteristics. 2) The Tour of Hainan and urban development are inconsistent in the comprehensive development level, however, the overall trend isvolatileand rising. The mutual influence and interaction between the two system elements will promote the development level of the whole system. 3) The degree of coupling and coupling coordination between the two systems had both increased year by year.It experienced a transformation from serious imbalance to intermediate coordination before and after 2014. However, a new round of favored policies and urban development will provide more resources and conditions for the development of Tour of Hainan, which will further promote the development of the host city. 4) The analysis of the in?uencing factors of the coupling coordination degree shows that the tourism income and the ?xed asset investment of the society have greatimpact on the coupling coordination degree. The number of employees in the tertiary industry, urban green coverage, and urban GDP are also related. The comprehensive in?uence of different factors promotes the coupling coordination of sports events and urban development.