基于EKC的全面小康中国与发达国家环境质量比较

A EKC-based Comparison of Environmental Quality between China with Overall Well-being and Developed Countries

以2020年全面建成小康社会目标为依据,比较了我国2020年与主要发达国家同等经济水平阶段在能源消耗、大气环境、水环境等方面的差距。研究发现:主要发达国家环境质量拐点出现在20世纪70年代末到80年代初,人均GDP在1.4万~1.5万美元左右。人均GDP在1.1万~1.2万美元阶段时,我国大气污染物排放强度低于发达国家,但大气环境质量差于发达国家;主要水污染排放量高于主要发达国家,但水环境质量基本可达到发达国家同期水平。建议要正确认识环境与经济之间的EKC曲线关系,制定具有中国特色的环境问题解决路线图,提出具有阶段性、差异化、适度超前的环境质量目标。

Based on the objective of building an overall well-being society in 2020, this paper compared the differences between China in 2020 and developed countries in the same economic development stage in ways such as energy consumption pattern, atmospheric and water quality. According to the research in the most developed countries, the turning point of the main environmental quality appeared from 1970 s to 80 s, with annual GDP of around $14,000 to 15,000 per capita. And when the GDP per capita reaches $11,000~12,000, China will have lower air pollution intensity, but worse air quality than developed countries. In terms of water quality, China will have more water pollution emissions but the same water quality relative to developed countries in the same economic development stage. The results of the paper suggest that it is necessary to have a clear understanding of EKC relationship between environment and economy. In addition, in order to provide periodical, differentiated and advanced environmental quality targets, a roadmap specifically designed to solve Chinese environmental problems needs to be developed.