中国基层卫生资源配置和卫生服务利用预测研究

A Study on the Forecast of Primary Health Resources Allocation and Health Services Utilization in China

目的通过预测2016~2020年中国基层卫生资源配置和卫生服务利用情况,以期为提高基层医疗卫生服务能力提供参考依据。方法本研究运用GM(1,1)模型预测2016~2020年中国基层卫生资源配置和卫生服务利用情况。结果根据预测结果,卫生机构数将由2016年的919903个上升到2020年的924034个,床位数将由2016年的146.9万张上升到2020年的166.2万张,卫生人员数将由2016年的3662828人上升到2020年的3903224人,全科医生数将由2016年的177776人上升到2020年的304775人,诊疗人次将由2016年的459345.8万人次上升到2020年的520111.6万人次,年平均增长率分别为0.09%、2.50%、1.28%、11.38%、2.52%。结论政府应当加大基层卫生投入,加大对基层医疗机构的转移支付力度,进一步优化政策环境,鼓励社会资本举办基层医疗卫生机构。

Objective To predict the primary health resources allocation and health services utilization in China, and to provide references for the improvement of primary health services capacity. Methods GM(1, 1) model was employed to predict the primary health resources allocation and health services utilization in China from 2016 to 2020. Results According to the predicting results, the number of health institutions will increase from 919,903 in 2016 to 924,034 in 2020, the number of beds will increase from 1,469 thousand in 2016 to 1,662 thousand in 2020, the number of general practitioners will increase from 177,776 in 2016 to 304,775 in 2020, the number of visits will increase from 4,593,458 thousand in 2016 to 5,201,116 thousand in 2020, and the annual average growth rates will be 0.09%, 2.50%, 1.28%, 11.38%, and 2.52%, respectively. Conclusion The government should increase the investment and the transfer payment to primary health institutions, and optimize policy environment to encourage social capital to set up primary private health institutions.