广西卫生总费用筹资现状及预测研究

A study on the Analysis and Prediction of Financing of Total Health Expenditure in Guangxi

目的分析广西卫生总费用筹资现状,预测发展趋势,以期为改善卫生筹资提供参考依据。方法本研究运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测2015~2020年广西卫生总费用筹资。结果广西卫生总费用将由2015年的1362.99亿元上升到2020年的4019.66亿元,年平均增长率为24.15%,其中政府卫生支出将由2015年的574.43亿元上升到2020年的1826.34亿元,社会卫生支出将由2015年的458.22亿元上升到2020年的1541.58亿元,个人卫生支出将由2015年的330.34亿元上升到2020年的651.74亿元,年平均增长率分别为26.03%、27.46%、14.56%。结论政府卫生投入不断加大;GM(1,1)模型适用于卫生总费用的预测,政府卫生支出、社会卫生支出年平均增长率过高。

Objective To analyze the financing of total health expenditure and predict its trend in Guangxi, and to provide references to improve the health financing. Methods GM(1, 1) was employed to predict the financing of total health expenditure from 2015 to 2020. Results Total health expenditure in Guangxi will increase from 136,299 million in 2015 to 401,966 million in 2020, and the annual average growth rate was 24.15%. Government expenditure on health will increase from 57,443 million in 2015 to 182,634 million in 2020, and social expenditure on health will increase from 45,822 million in 2015 to 154,158 million in 2020, and out-of-pocket payment will increase from 33,034 million in 2015 to 65,174 million in 2020, the annual average growth rates of the three expenditures were 26.03%, 27.46%, and 14.56%, respectively. Conclusion Government should increase expenditure on health. GM(1,1) model was suitable to predict the total health expenditure. The annual average growth rates of government and social expenditure on health will be fairly high.