山东省农业气象灾害与主要农作物产量的灰色关联分析

Gray Correlation Analysis of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters and Main Crop Yields in Shandong Province

为分析农业气象灾害对山东省农作物产量的影响,结合山东省1950-2016年的农业统计数据,分别研究了洪涝灾、干旱灾、风雹灾、低温灾和台风灾这5种农业气象灾害对主要农作物小麦、玉米、棉花单产及总产量的影响。并从受灾范围和灾害强度两方面入手构建了灰色关联分析法的数理模型。该模型将整个研究周期划分为1950-1959、1960-1969、1970-1979、1980-1989、1990-1999、2000-2009和2010-2016年7个阶段。结果表明:从受灾范围看,风雹灾、旱灾是影响山东省农作物总产量的主要农业气象灾害。从受灾强度看,山东省农作物主要受到干旱灾害和洪涝灾害的影响。干旱灾无论从受灾范围还是灾害强度上对山东省农作物的产量影响都较大。低温灾和台风灾则对山东省农作物的产量影响较小。

In order to further explore the impact of agricultural meteorological disasters on crop yields in Shandong province,agricultural statistics from 1950 to 2016 are selected to study the influence of five meteorological disasters including flood disaster,drought disaster,windstorm disaster,frost disaster and typhoon disaster on the yields of wheat,corn and cotton.A mathematical model based on grey correlation analysis is developed from the perspective of the disaster area and disaster intensity.This model divides the entire research cycle into seven stages,namely,1950-1959,1960-1969,1970-1979,1980-1989,1990-1999,2000-2009,and 2010-2016.The results show that:from the scope of the disaster,windstorm and drought disasters are the main agricultural meteorological disasters affecting the main crop yields of Shandong province.Meanwhile,from the perspective of disaster intensity,drought and flood disasters have the greatest impact on the yield of crops in Shandong province.In view of the disaster-affected range and the disaster intensity,the drought disaster is the vital agricultural meteorological disaster to influence the crop yield in Shandong province.Low-temperature and typhoon disasters have little impact on the production of crops regardless of the extent of the scope of disaster or the intensity of it.