基于年检数据的维修器材储存期限预测模型

Forecasting Model of Equipment Storage Life Based on Annual Technical Inspection Data

利用后方仓库中维修器材技术检查产生的年检数据来估计维修器材的储存期限,分析了年检数据的特点,并将其转化为区间数据;对比分析了3种区间数据处理模型的特点,利用最大似然法建立了基于区间数据的维修器材储存期限回归方程;通过期望最大化(Expectation Maximization,EM)算法给出了回归系数和随机误差的迭代求解式,最后通过模拟实验验证了该方法的稳定性和可行性,为系统解决基于年检数据的维修器材储存期限估计问题提供了一种可行方法。

The annual inspection data generated from the technical inspection for maintenance equipment in base warehouse is used to predict the storage life of equipment,the characteristic of annual inspection data is analyzed,and then the inspection data is transformed into grouped data.Characteristics of three kinds of models for processing grouped data are compared and the storage life regression equation for grouped data is built by maximum likelihood method.The regression coefficient and iterative solution with random error are provided by Expectation Maximization (EM)algorithm.Finally,The method is proved to be stable and feasible through simulation,which offers a workable method for the estimation of equip-ment storage life based on annual inspection data.