基于作战任务的备件保障概率分配及其需求量预测模型

Spare Parts Support Probability Distribution and Demand Forecasting Model Based on Combat Mission

以作战任务为牵引,基于我方装备战斗力指数及其与敌方目标对抗的损失交换比(简称"对抗损失交换比"),建立不同作战任务下装备综合战斗力指数评估模型;基于装备综合战斗力指数,采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)确定装备作战任务贡献度(简称"装备贡献度");基于装备贡献度分配装备保障概率,依据零部件对装备整体功能的重要度分配相应备件的保障概率,有效避免人为分配造成的主观误差。根据装备损坏模式预测战时备件的需求量:在技术损坏模式中,依据零部件的不同寿命分布构建预测模型;在受击损坏模式中,采用数理统计方法构建预测模型。最后,通过案例分析验证所提出方法的有效性和可行性。结果表明:该方法具有较强的实用性和有效性,可为不同作战任务下备件需求量预测提供新思路。

Taking combat missions as traction and based on our equipment combat effectiveness index and loss exchange ratio( referred to as 'confrontation loss exchange ratio') against enemy targets,a equipment comprehensive combat effectiveness index evaluation model for equipment under different combat missions is established. Based on the equipment comprehensive combat effectiveness index of equipment,Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP) method is used to determine the contribution degree of equipment combat mission( referred to as 'equipment contribution'). According to the equipment contribution degree,the equipment support probability is allocated,and the support probability of the corresponding spare parts is allocated according to the importance of the spare parts to the overall function of the equipment. This method can effectively avoid subjective experience errors caused by human distribution. According to the equipment damage mode,the demand for spare parts in wartime is predicted. In the technical damage mode,the prediction model is constructed according to the different life distribution of components,and in the hit damage mode,the mathematical statistics method is used to construct the prediction model. Finally,the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method are verified through case analysis. The results show that the method has strong practicability and effectiveness,and provides a new idea for spare parts demand forecasting under different combat missions.