基于政府跨期预算约束方程的地方财力可持续分析

Sustainability Analysis of Local Financial Resources Based on Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint Equation

在经济转型升级、财政收入增速放缓、支出需求快速增长、债务偿还压力加大的背景下,地方财政可持续发展面临了巨大压力与挑战。本文梳理了地方政府财力的分析口径,在此基础上提出了地方政府财力可持续的概念,将政府跨期预算约束方程作为地方政府财力可持续的分析框架,通过实证对31个省市的财力状况和债务风险状况进行评估,并提出在债务未来演变中控制债务风险需满足的地方财力要求。

Under the background of economic transformation and upgrading, slow growth of fiscal revenue, rapid growth in expenditures, and increasing debt repayment pressure, the sustainable development of local finance faces enormous pressures and challenges. This paper sorts out the analysis of local government financial resources. On this basis, it puts forward the concept of local government financial sustainability. The intertemporal government budget constraint equation is used as a analysis framework of sustainability for local government financial resources. It assesses the financial status and debt risk of 31 provinces by demonstration method and proposes local financial requirements to control the debt risk in the future evolution.