信贷政策对民营企业盈利的非对称冲击——基于Panel VAR模型及脉冲响应函数分析

Asymmetric Impact of Credit Policy on Profit of Private Enterprises——Based on the Panel VAR Model and Analysis of Pulse Response Function

本文以我国中小板市场上市民营企业为研究对象,将信贷政策分解为扩张型信贷和收缩型信贷,利用PanelVAR模型及脉冲响应函数考察不同信贷政策对企业盈利影响的对称性。研究发现:不同的信贷政策对企业盈利具有非对称冲击,相对于一单位的信贷投入冲击,民营企业净利润对收缩型信贷的冲击反应更敏感迅速,作用时间更持久。据此,银行业金融机构要重点防止盲目停贷、压贷等做法对企业盈利造成严重冲击,为民营企业发展提供时间和空间。

This paper takes private enterprises in China’s small and medium-sized board market as research object.And then classifing credit policy into expansionary credit policy and contracting credit policy to investigate the symmetry of the impact of different credit policies on profit of private enterprises using the Panel VAR Model and Analysis of Pulse Response Function.Research shows that different credit policies have asymmetric effects on corporate profits.For a unit of credit input shock,the net profits of private enterprises are more sensitive to the impact of tightening credit policy and the effect lasts longer.Therefore,the financial system should focus on preventing the practice of blindly stopping loans,reducing loans from causing serious impacts on profits of private enterprises,and providing sufficient time and space for private enterprises to develop.