目标不一致、正外部性与生育补贴

Objective Inconsistency, Positive Externality and Fertility Subsidies

针对当前实际生育水平小于意愿生育水平小于政策生育水平的典型事实,构建家庭和社会生育决策模型进行理论阐述和机制探讨后发现:生育收益社会化下生育成本快速上升且主要由家庭承担引致的生育行为正外部性是家庭和社会生育目标不一致的主要原因。解决外部性的手段通常包括生育管制、生育权交易以及生育供给社会化等,结合技术和伦理规范等因素,认为生育补贴是当前比较可行的方案。进一步的理论推断和实证研究结果表明:表征为生育补贴的生育保险制度会显著提升家庭生育水平,特别是在经济发达地区。政策含义是,尽快推出规避生育行为正外部性的措施,即考虑到社会养老保险与生育补贴的紧密关联,建议在社会养老保险体系相对成熟地区,发展和完善注重女性发展和降低教育成本的生育保险制度。

Based on the typical fact that actual fertility level is lower than policy fertility level at present,this paper constructs a family and social fertility decision-making model to explain and discuss this phenomenon.It find that positive externalities of fertility behavior which is caused by the rapid rise of fertility costs under the socialization of fertility benefits and being borne by families are the causes and internal mechanism of inconsistency between family and social fertility goals.Externalities are usually solved by means of birth control,transaction of fertility rights and socialization of fertility supply.Considering factors such as technology and ethics,the current feasible scheme is fertility subsidy.Further theoretical and empirical studies show that maternity insurance characterized by maternity subsidies can significantly promote family fertility,especially in economically developed areas.The policy implication is to introduce measures to avoid positive externalities of fertility behavior as soon as possible.Considering that social endowment insurance and fertility subsidy are twin siblings,it is particularly important to develop and improve the maternity insurance system focusing on women development and reducing the cost of education in areas where the social endowment system is mature.