出租车资源供求匹配的综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Matching of Supply and Demand of Taxi Resources

目的分析中国统计网数据所给出的不同时间、地点的客流量及出租车的数量,探讨出租车资源供求匹配在时间与地区上的分配问题。方法抽取出租车万人拥有量、空驶率、空驶时间、空车率及乘客等待时间5个主要指标,建立了基于数据变换综合评价数学模型,然后选取几个具有代表性城市的出租车数据,运用对比分析法对该模型进行论证和评价,以此模拟出全国出租车供求匹配的程度。结果当出租车到目的地的距离越近乘客需求量越大时,出租车司机选择搭乘乘客的概率就会偏大。高峰时期出租车的空驶时间、空车率会减小,乘客的等待时间可能会增加,出租车资源空置率会降低,供求关系呈现出供不应求的特征;在低峰时期,市区会剩余较多的空闲运能,道路上出租车较多,空车率(空驶率)较高,空驶时间也会相应增加,出租车资源的空置率会增加,供求关系出现供过于求的关系特征。结论所选的5大指标能够有效地模拟出全国出租车供求匹配的程度。

Objective The Chinese statistics network data of the number of traffic and taxis in different time and locations were analyzed to explore taxi resource supply and demand matching in time with the regional distribution. Methods This paper drew taxi people ownership,deadhead rate,deadhead time,empty rates and passenger waiting time to establish a data transformation based on comprehensive evaluation mathematical model. And then taxi data of a few representative city were selected by using comparative analysis method to demonstrate and evaluate the model so as to effectively simulate the degree of matching supply and demand of nationwide taxi. Results The closer the taxi departure points to the target distance,the greater the demand for passengers,and the more choices taxi drivers had. In peak periods taxi deadhead rates,passenger demand deadhead time,and empty rate decreased. Passengers waiting time increased,and the vacancy rate reduced,showing that supply and demand was in short supply. An low-peak periods,the remaining more spare capacity would be found at this urban transport,more taxis on the road and empty rate( deadhead rate) was higher. Deadhead time had a corresponding increase in the vacancy rate. Taxi resources had characteristics of oversupply. Condusion The five indicators selected can effectively simulate the degree of matching supply and demand of nationwide taxis.