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基于多项指标预测的邮轮定价策略

Pricing Strategies of the Cruise Based on Multiple Prediction Indices
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摘要 目的针对旨在实现企业效益最大化的游轮定价问题,建立基于多项指标进行预测的游轮定价模型,并为邮轮公司提出了提高收益的游轮定价建议。方法对搜集到的多组反映不同订舱时间、不同等级的舱位预定情况的数据,综合使用插值法、曲线估计法、相关分析法、描述统计法、典型相关分析等方法,构建了价格人数预测相关分析模型、最大预期售票收益模型,运用SPSS、MATLAB、LINGO等软件编程求解,预测到每次航行各周预定舱位的人数和航行的预期售票收益,分析预定舱位价格与预定人数、意愿预定人数之间的关系,为公司完善每次航行预定舱位价格表并制定了最优升舱方案。结果该邮轮公司应该对二等舱升至头等舱的消费者加收费用513元,三等舱升至二等舱加收费用441元,三等舱升至头等舱加收费用954元。最大增加的收益为66 427元。结论为了实现邮轮公司的效益最大化,面对包括消费意愿在内的繁杂影响因素,要进行具有针对性的定价,从而使真实收益更加接近于预期的高收益。 Objective This paper aims to establish a multi-factor evaluating model to price the cruise tickets efficiently and propose some reasonable advices to improve the profitability of the cruise company.Methods First,this paper collected several groups of data which indicated the reservation situations of seats in different levels and booking times.Then,by adopting various methodologies such as interpolation,curve estimation,correlation analysis,descriptive statistics and canonical correlation analysis,we successfully established the price-population forecasting model and maximum expected revenue model.Thus,with SPSS,MATLAB and LINGO programming,the expected customer number and return were proposed.And we analyzed the relationship between the booking price,reservation number and willing to reservation number.Last,the price list was completed and the optimal upgrade for the company was developed.Results The cruise line would increase extra cost by 513 RMB on consumer who rose from the second class to first class,441 RMB on the one from third class to second class,954 RMB on the one from third class to first class.And the maximum increase in revenue was 66,427 RMB.Conclusion To achieve the maximum efficiency of the cruise company,in the face of complex factors,including the willingness of the consumer,we can carry out a targeted pricing,so that the real income is much closer to the expected high yield.
出处 《河北北方学院学报(自然科学版)》 2016年第7期56-60,共5页 Journal of Hebei North University:Natural Science Edition
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(11301001) 安徽财经大学教研项目(acjyzd201429)
关键词 最大预期收益 描述统计法 典型相关分析法 最大预期售票收益模型 MATLAB 定价策略 maximum expected return descriptive statistics canonical correlation analysis maximum expected ticket revenue model MATLAB pricing strategy
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