中国货币流动性对通货膨胀影响之实证研究——基于1990-2012年的数据

An Empirical Study of the Impact of China’s Liquidity on Inflation——Based on the Statistical Data from 1990 to 2012

次贷危机以后,以美联储为首的西方主要国家的中央银行采取极具扩张性的货币政策,大规模热钱涌入中国等新兴市场国家,造成了流动性过剩。本文首先通过对1990-2012年的M1、M2、M2/GDP指标及其回归实证分析,得出多年来全球流动性输入、我国外汇管理制度和外汇占款等经济货币条件是造成我国流动性现状的主要原因。然后立足于后危机时代(即2008年至今),通过基于E-G两步法的协整与误差修正模型对季节修正后的M1同期比值和CPI月度数据进行实证分析,得出我国流动性状况一定程度上引起了我国目前的通货膨胀。最后基于前述模型分析得出的结论,从流动性管理角度尝试给出控制通货膨胀的建议:在国内,短期内以施行适度紧缩的货币政策为导向,长期以金融深化促进产业升级为根本战略;在国际上,则需要改变现行的货币体系,解决外部流动性输入。

After The Subprime Crisis, Major Western central banks such as the American Federal Reserve committee took a very expansionary monetary policy, which caused massive hot money flowing into China and other emerging market countries, resulting in a problem called 'excess liquidity'. This article first gives concrete analysis, via M1 and M2 tendency from the year of 1990 to 2012, the index of M2/GDP, to conclude that years of global liquidity import, foreign exchange control system and the mirror image of foreign exchange are the main reasons to forge the current situation of China’s liquidity. Moreover, in the period of ' after-crisis',from 2008 to today,based on the concrete analysis in the co-integration of E-G two-steps system and the corresponding period ratio of M1, which is after seasonal correction in the error correction model, and the monthly data of CPI, this article demonstrates that the current inflation in China is caused by the Chinese currency liquidity in some extent. At last, on basis of the previous conclusion that have been made by the models above,this article tries to give suggestions of inflation controlling from the perspective of liquidity administration. That is, domestically, do the implementation of moderately tight monetary policy as orientation in the short run and do the financial deepening to promote industrial upgrading as a fundamental strategy in the long run. Internationally, it will need to change the current monetary system and to solve the external liquidity import problem.