证券分析师个人特征对盈余预测的影响——基于上市公司盈余数据的实证研究

Influence from Securities Analysts’ Personal Characteristics to Earnings Forecasts——An Empirical Study Based on Earnings Data of Listed Companeis

本文通过收集来自CSMAR数据库、中国证券业协会官方网站以及《新财富》杂志官方网站的数据,分别得到13862份和13785份有效样本。通过定性和定量分析,得出如下研究结论:(1)证券分析师盈余预测倾向性方面:我国证券分析师整体存在乐观性倾向,其倾向性受到证券分析师个人特征的影响。证券分析师的从业时间、任务繁重情况、发布最后一次盈余预测报告至预测终止日时间与其预测乐观性存在明显正相关关系;而研究同一家上市公司的证券分析师数量、公司上市时间等与其盈余预测乐观性都有显著的负相关性。证券分析师的学历、声誉、修改频率、所在券商规模对其预测倾向性影响不是很显著。(2)证券分析师盈余预测准确性方面:证券分析师发布的预测盈余数据与实际盈余数据是显著线性正相关,预测盈余数据可以在很大程度上解释实际盈余数据,而且其个人特征因素会影响其盈余预测的准确度。证券分析师预测期长度与其预测准确性显著负相关;而其学历、声誉、修改频率、任务繁重情况、发布最后一次盈余预测报告至预测终止日时间、研究同一家上市公司的证券分析师数量、公司上市时间等与其盈余预测准确性有显著正相关性。从整体的拟合优度来看,证券分析师的个人特征对其盈余预测的准确性有很好的解释力。

This paper validly collected 13862 and 13785 samples from CSMAR database, the official website of the Securities Association of China and New Fortune magazine. We arrive at the following conclusions through qualitative and quantitative analysis.(1) Tendentious aspects of securities analysts’ earnings forecasts: Chinese securities analysts are almost optimistic about prediction, the tendency is affected by securities analysts’ personal characteristics. Securities analysts’ gender, employment time, heavy task, the last time reporting earnings forecast to termination date predicting the report have significant positive correlation with optimistic forecast. However,the number of securities of a listed company and the company time to market and so on have a significant negative correlation with its earnings forecast optimism. Securities analysts’ qualifications, reputation, modifying frequency, the size of its brokerage are not very significant to influent the tendency forecast.(2) Accuracy areas of securities analysts’ forecast : The forecast earnings data issued by securities analysts has a significant positive linear correlation with the real data. The real data can be explained in large part by the forecast earnings data, and their individual characteristics will affect the accuracy of their earnings forecasts. Gender and the length of its predictive time of securities analysts have a significant negative correlation with accuracy prediction;while their qualifications, reputation, modifying frequency, heavy task, the last time reporting earnings forecast to termination date predicting the report, the number of securities of a listed company and the company time to market and so on have significant positive correlation with accuracy forecast. From the overall fitting goodness, the personal characteristics of securities analysts can commendably explain the accuracy of their earnings forecasts.