房地产泡沫、金融摩擦与资产负债表衰退——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟分析

Housing Bubble,Financial Friction and Balance Sheet Recession:Based on a Numerical Simulation Analysis of the DSGE Model

房地产是国民经济的支柱产业,对经济增长有着巨大的贡献。一旦房地产市场出现问题,泡沫破裂,将引发难以想象的灾难。本文着眼于研究房地产泡沫破裂对实体经济所造成的危害及其背后的传导机制,通过构建一个包含房地产和金融摩擦的DSGE模型,用数值模拟的方式生动形象地展示了在金融摩擦导致的金融加速器机制的传导和放大作用下,房地产泡沫破裂是如何引发经济陷入资产负债表衰退的。模拟结果表明:房地产泡沫破裂后,不仅房价将下跌,银行将遭受巨额损失,还将拖累总产出下降,导致经济陷入长期衰退。

Real estate is the pillar industry of the national economy and has made tremendous contributions to economic growth.Once the real estate market goes wrong,the housing bubble bursts,an unimaginable disaster will occur.We focus on the harm and underlying transmission mechanism done to real economy by housing bubble bursts.We construct a DSGE model which contains house market and financial friction,and by using the method of numerical simulation,show vividly how the collapse of a housing bubble leads the economy into balance sheet recession,under the influence and amplification of the financial accelerator mechanism caused by financial friction.The simulation results show that:after the housing bubble bursts,not only house prices fall,the banks suffer huge losses,the total output will also decline,leading to a long-term economic recession.