改革、垄断、行业周期与国有企业绩效——基于1998—2007年中国国有工业企业的实证分析

Reform,Monopoly,Industrial Business Cycle and SOE’s Performance Empirical evidence based onstate-owned enterprises from Chinese industrial sector during 1998-2007

当前深化国资国企改革需要从已经发生的改革中寻求经验。1998—2007年,中国的国有企业绩效大幅改善,其原因何在?改革、垄断和行业周期哪一个因素的影响更大?本文使用1998—2007年的中国工业企业数据对影响国有企业绩效的多方面因素进行了考察,并通过因素分解来分析其相对重要性。结果表明,改革的确提升了国有企业绩效,与此同时,垄断和国有企业所处行业的景气周期带来的水涨船高效应也不能否认。进一步的因素分解显示,就国有企业生产效率而言,行业周期的影响最大,占44.45%,垄断次之,占7%,改革最次,占6.80%;就国有企业效益而言,改革的影响最大,占19.87%,行业周期次之,占18.85%,垄断最次,占4.21%。本文根据这些发现提出了相应的政策建议。

China’s State-owned Enterprises(SOEs)improved their performance significantly since 1998 and before 2008 global financial crisis.However,there is no consensus on what factors determined the performance of SOEs.This paper investigates the effects of major factors on the performance of SOEs by using the Industrial Survey data from 1998 to 2007.We classify there factors into three main categories,reform factor,competition factor and industrial cyclical factor.And decompose the effects for relative importance and find that all these three factors played important role in the performance of SOEs.In the decomposition,we find that industrial cyclical factors play an important role in determining the productivity and financial performance of the explained part,and account for 44.45%and 18.85%respectively;competition factors account for 7%and 4.21%respectively;reform factors account for 6.8%and 19.87%respectively.Some policy suggestions are proposed based on our findings.