税率、公共服务支出对经济产出的影响——基于当前财政政策的理论及模拟分析

The Impact of Tax Rate and Public Service Expenditure on Economic Output——The Theory and Simulation Analysis based on Current Fiscal Policy

供给侧结构性改革之"一降一补"任务已成为当前经济工作的重中之重。通过把税率看作生产与消费的约束条件,考虑公共服务支出对消费的外部性影响,将消费税率、劳动税率和资本收益税率以及政府转移性支付等公共服务支出纳入统一的研究框架,从而构建一个一般均衡模型,研究税率与公共服务支出所占份额变化对经济产出的影响。在独立可加与非独立可加两种效用偏好假定下进行理论推导,并以中国宏观经济变量-产出比率数据为基准值进行数值分析,研究结果表明:(1)产出与各税率均负相关;(2)产出与政府公共服务支出在消费函数中所占份额的关系则因税种、效用偏好不同而存在差异。最后,基于研究结果提出相关政策建议。

The'one drop and one supplement'task of the supply-side structural reform has become the top priority of current economic work.The tax rates are considered as the constraint of enterprises and consumers,given the external influence of public service expenditure on consumption,and consumption tax rate,labor tax rate,capital gain tax rate,and the public service expenditures such as government transfer payment are included in the unified research framework.Then a general equilibrium model is constructed to study the impact of changes in tax rates and the shares of public service expenditure on the economy.The theoretical derivation is carried out under the assumptions of non-independently and independently additive utility preferences,and the numerical analysis is given based on the Chinese macroeconomic variable-output ratio data.The results show that:(1)Output is negatively correlated with each tax rate;(2)The relationship between output and the share of government public service expenditure in the consumption function is different due to different taxes and utility preferences.Finally,based on the research results,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.