婚姻稳定性与生育率变动关系的理论与实证分析

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Marital Stability and Fertility Rate's Change

本文对婚姻稳定性与生育率的影响关系进行了理论与实证研究。在理论方面,构建生育模型,将婚姻稳定性分为与生育率相关的内生部分和不相关的外生部分,分析得到,当外生因素不变时,婚姻稳定性和生育率处于均衡水平;当不利于婚姻稳定性的外生因素增强时,生育率降低。同时,利用CGSS微观调查数据检验婚姻稳定性对生育率的影响效应,通过区分非流动和流动人口的影响差异来识别内生和外生效应。实证结果表明,婚姻稳定性对生育率具有总体正向效应,其中,农村非流动人口的婚姻稳定性对生育率没有显著影响,而流动人口的婚姻稳定性对生育率具有显著正向影响。由于人口流动对婚姻稳定性具有负的外部冲击,进而对生育率产生局部均衡影响,使得生育率降低。

This paper makes a theoretical and empirical study on the relationship between the marriage stability and the fertility rate.Theoretically,constructing a birth model and dividing marital stability into endogenous part related to fertility and exogenous part,it infers when exogenous factors remain constant,marital stability and fertility rate keeps in balance and when an unfavorable exogenous factor that affects marital stability increases,the fertility rate decreases.Furthermore,it tests the influence of marital stability on fertility rate using CGSS micro survey data,and identifies endogenous and exogenous effects by distinguishing influence between floating population and local population.The empirical results show that marital stability has a positive overall effect on fertility rate,in which the marital stability of rural local population has no significant influence on fertility rate,while floating population’s marital stability has a significant positive impact on fertility rate.As mobility has negative external impact on marital stability,subsequently has partial equilibrium influence on fertility rate,which leads to lower fertility rate.