收入分配、产业升级与中等收入陷阱

Income Distribution, Industrial Upgrading and Middle Income Traps

本文基于消费升级的视角,构建中等收入陷阱的理论模型,证明了中等收入陷阱的存在性。利用123个国家1980-2015年的跨国面板数据给出了经验证据。研究发现:(1)对于中等收入经济体,收入差距过大会导致消费升级和产业升级的'涓滴效应'被阻隔,经济增长出现瓶颈,甚至陷入中等收入陷阱;(2)收入分配与经济增长存在多重均衡特征,低收入阶段下的收入不平等促进经济增长,中等收入阶段下的收入不平等存在最优水平,而高收入阶段下的收入不平等则阻碍经济增长;(3)经济增长率、消费增长率和服务业增长率均与基尼系数呈显著的库兹涅茨倒U型关系,存在最优的收入分配结构。本文认为,收入分配结构和生产技术水平是决定中国能否跨越中等收入陷阱的两个关键维度。

From the perspective of consumption upgrading,this paper proposes an economic model of middle-income traps,which theoretically proves the existence of middle-income traps.Furthermore,we apply the panel data of 123 countries from 1980 to 2015 to test the theoretical model.The main findings are as follows.Firstly,for the middle-income economies,the excessive income inequality impedes the'trickle effect'transmission mechanism of consumption and industrial upgrading and becomes the bottleneck of economic growth,which could eventually lead to middle-income trap.Secondly,there are multiple equilibriums between income distribution and economic growth.Income inequality promotes economic growth in low income stage,and hinders economic growth in high income stage.However,it has the optimal level in middle income stage.Thirdly,the relationship between Gini coefficient and economic growth rate,consumption growth rate and growth rate in services are all Kuznets inverted U shape.This paper argues that the income distribution structure and production technology level are two key dimensions that determine whether China can cross the middle income trap.