基于IS-LM-PC模型的浙江省三大需求和两大指标分析

Analysis of the Three Demands and Two Major Indicators of Zhejiang Province based on IS-LM-PC Model

基于最新的IS-LM-PC模型,对浙江投资、消费、出口三大需求和地区生产总值、物价两大指标发生趋势性变化的原因及其影响因素进行分析,发现浙江经济需求侧和供给侧分别受到企业预期、房地产市场、金融市场、外汇市场、外贸市场、税收政策和供给侧结构性改革等不同外生变量冲击,预期影响和政策叠加效应明显。建议政府既要平衡好稳增长与防风险、长期目标与短期目标的关系,把握好政策实施节奏和力度,也要加强市场对于政策的反应分析,做好政策出台对市场的叠加效应评估,善于引导预期。

Based on the latest IS-LM-PC model, this paper analyzes the reasons for the trend change and its influencing factors of Zhejiang’s three demands of investment, consumption and export, and the two major indicators of regional GDP and price. It is found that Zhejiang’s economic demand and supply sides are affected by different exogenous variables such as enterprise expectation, real estate market, financial market, foreign exchange market, foreign trade market, taxation policy and supply side structural reform, and the expected impact and policy superposition effect are obvious. It is suggested that the government should balance the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention, long-term goals and short-term goals, grasp the pace and intensity of policy implementation, strengthen the market’s response to policy analysis, and properly evaluate the superposition effect of the policy on the market and guide expectations.