辨析“李普塞特命题”——国外经济发展与民主关系的理论之争

An Analysis on “Lipset Hypothesis”——A Review of Relationship Between Economic Development and Democracy in Western Academia

经济发展与民主之间的关系是政治学重要的研究主题。1959年,李普塞特提出了"经济发展促进民主"的论断,在学术界产生了深远的影响。这一论断被誉为"社会科学中最杰出的理论发现"和"比较政治学中迄今为止最有影响的经验归纳"。半个世纪以来,"李普塞特命题"经历了众多学者的反复检验。其间,它在倍受称誉的同时,也遭遇了广泛的批评。如有学者质疑经济发展所具有的积极效应;修正了两者之间的线性因果逻辑;以及提出了民主化的过程取向解释和外生性解释等替代性理论。支持"李普塞特命题"的学者则对各种批评进行了回应,进一步厘清了两者之间的逻辑进路,从而拓展和增进了"李普塞特命题"的理论空间与解释效力。但是,随着现实的变化与社会的发展,有关该主题的争论并未终结而仍在继续。

The relationship between economic development and democracy is an important research topic in political science. Since Lipset proposed the argument that'economic development promotes democratization'in 1959,this thesis has been exerting profound influence on academic circles,known as'one of the most prominent theories of the social science'and'one of the best sustained by the evidence'in comparative politics. 'Lipset hypothesis'was examined repeatedly during the half a century. It met with fierce criticisms. For instance,some scholars questioned the positive effects of the economic developent;some revised the linear causal logic between economic development democracy; and some raised'political process explanation'and 'exogenous explanation'as alternative theories. Scholars who supported'Lipset hypothesis'responded to the criticisms.Their research made the causal relationships between economic development and democracy more explicit,expanding the theoretical space and explanatory power of'Lipset hypothesis'. However,with the change of reality and the development of society,the debates on this issue will continue.