人口世代更迭与经济增长速度:兼析新常态下的人口政策选择

Population Generations and Economic Growth: An Analysis on Population Policy Choices under the New Normal

当80后出生高峰进入劳动力市场时,中国经济增速轨迹呈现一个先上升后下降的倒U型;当90后和00后出生低谷依次进入劳动力市场时,中国经济增速呈现出剧烈下降的趋势。2016年左右,人口红利开始消失,为防止中国经济更快跌入人口悬崖,本文评价了延迟退休和放开生育政策制度,发现90后和00后进入劳动力市场的2010—2030年间,其一,延迟退休比不延迟退休好,维持生育政策不变比放开生育政策好且调整退休制度的作用较大,之后则相反。其二,从迫切性和重要性来看,退休制度要先行;生育观念转变需要时日,生育政策对宏观经济的作用在长期上才能逐渐凸显,加上短期上对储蓄的替代,故生育政策重要但不急迫,而且选择何种生育政策需要谨慎。

When the generation of post-80 s entered the labor market during 2003—2013,the China economic growth presented an inverted U type track. When the generations of post-90 s and post-00 s enter the labor market,growth will have dramatically declined. With post-90 s and post-00 s entering into the labor market,population bonus begins to disappear after2016. To prevent Chinese economic fastly falling into demographic cliff,the paper evaluate the delay retirement and fertility policy,and we found that,when post-90 s and post-00 s are entering into the labor market,delaying retirement is better than not,maintaining fertility policy unchanged is better than a relaxed fertility policy,while adjusting the retirement system brings about great effect. Delayed retirement policies need to be performed immediately,fertility policy is important,but not urgent.