东亚权力转移的可能性探析

Probability Analysis of the East Asia Power Transition

东亚作为世界上最具有潜力和活力的地区之一,正逐渐走向世界舞台的中心。而在这一区域层级体系内,中国的迅速崛起使得东亚开始出现日益明显的"权力转移"趋势。本文对东亚权力和平转移的可能性进行了分析,认为东亚权力转移与以往的"武力争霸时代"的权力转移迥然不同,其无论在时代特征还是空间范围上,都受到众多因素的限制,因此,东亚权力和平转移的可能性远远大于战争转移的可能性。本文指出中国应当具备大战略的胸怀和宽广的视野,谋求综合国力各要素的均衡发展,通过与美国建立"新型大国关系",积极主动地构建一种针对东亚权力转移的风险管理机制,以管控东亚权力转移的进程。

East Asia is gradually moving towards the center of the world stage as one of the most potential regions of vitality. In the region hierarchy system,China's rapid rise renders East Asia to have a remarkable power transition. In this paper, the authors analyze the probability of power transition in East Asia, and assume that the power transition in East Asia is very different from that in the era of 'military hegemony '. The possibility of a peaceful power transition in East Asia is far greater than that in the Nar time. The authors point out that China should have grand strategy to seek balanced development and increase comprehensive national strength. Through establishing 'a new great-power relation ' with the United States, China will need to construct the mechanism of risk management for East Asia power shift in order to monitor the transitional process.