缅甸2015年大选与民主化前景分析

Perspectives on Myanmar Election in 2015 and the Country's Democritization

缅甸将于今年11月举行大选,此次大选对于缅甸国内以昂山素季为领袖的全国民主联盟尤为重要,同时这次大选也是缅甸推行民主化过程中最具标志性意义的事件。本文通过对缅甸民主化的历史梳理来分析缅甸民主化的前景。目前来看,缅甸政府推行渐进改革兼顾稳定的主从政党制的方式,不会选择完全照搬西方的民主模式。

The Myanmar Election will be held in November, 2015, which is vital to Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy. It is seen as an important landmark in the democratic process of the country. The international communities are paying close attention to the Election, and Obama's administration regards it as one of the main achievements in foreign affairs of America.Historically, the positive aspect of democratic process is that the Myanmar government has discerned its ruling crisis, and come up with the alternative that democratization is the way out. Judging from the present condition, one can reasonably predict that the country will implement gradual reform along with the dominant-party system rather than follow the Western model.