区域贸易制度的和平效应:路径分析与东亚启示

Peace Effect of Regional Economic Integration: Path Analysis and East Asia Lessons

随着区域经济一体化浪潮再度席卷全球,诸多地区仍然被紧张的安全局势和冲突所困扰。按照自由制度主义的观点,区域经济一体化能够推动冲突的缓和,带来和平效应,但事实表明,并非所有的区域经济一体化进程都能够发挥和平效应。区域经济制度可以从三个路径抑制冲突的升级:区域经济一体化的程度可以通过机会成本机制发挥和平效应;高层会晤机制通过信息机制和冲突管理机制发挥和平效应;争端解决机制也可以通过冲突管理机制发挥和平效应。但是,通过案例比较分析后发现,这三个机制在案例中并非同时存在,相互之间的关系也有主从之分。机会成本机制是和平效应得以发挥的根本和前提,最重要的干预变量是成员国对区域经济一体化的"收益预期";信息机制可以发挥和平效应,但并不能独立体现出和平效应;冲突解决机制的和平效应的体现则面临着更大的不确定性。这一分析框架对解释东亚当前面临的安全困境有积极的理论和现实意义。

As the regional economic integration tide swept the globe again, many areas are still marred by tense security situation and conflict. According to the view of liberal institutionalism, regional economic integration can promote the easing of conflict and bring peace. But in fact, not all the regional economic integration process can gives play to effect of peace. Regional economic system can inhibit the upgrade of conflict from three paths : the degree of regional economic integration give play to effect of peace by Opportunity cost mechanism,high-level meeting system by information and conflict management mechanism,dispute settlement mechanism by conflict management mechanism. However,through case analysis it is found that these three mechanisms do not exist at the same time, and there is a clear master-slave relationship between each other.The opportunity cost mechanism is the foundation and premise to realize peace effect, and the most important intervening variable is the income expectation of members of regional economic integration. Information mechanism can play a peaceful effect but not independently. There is a greater uncertainty for conflict management mechanism to achieve peace effect. In view of current security dilemma in East Asia, this analytical framework has a positive theoretical and practical significance.