美国国内的霸权衰退战略辩论

Domestic Strategic Debate about America's Decline in the USA

进入新世纪以来,"9·11"事件和金融危机对美国全球霸权造成一定程度冲击。由于经济、科技、创新、教育和人口是全球化和信息时代衡量国家实力的重要指标体系,也是构成美国霸权的物质实力要素,因此,文章基于事实数据对美国国内围绕这些要素的战略辩论进行检验和分析的结果是,赤字外债并未导致美国经济内部衰败,美国仍处于信息科技制高点,在创新、教育和人口方面依然拥有领先优势。美国霸权的物质实力基础依然稳固,并有能力解决其面临的各种挑战。最后,文章分析了美国经济迅速从金融危机中复苏发展的深层原因,并对此次辩论对奥巴马政府解决赤字外债、振兴实体经济和加强科技创新的政策变革和调适的影响进行初步探析。文章反映了美国国内学术界和政策界关于该问题辩论的现实,对于理解美国国内战略辩论有所裨益。

There is currently a strategic debate on the American hegemonic issues in the USA. On the basis of related facts and information,this paper sets out to testify the consequences of the heated debate in the country. It finds that the economic deficits and debts do not necessarily lead to internal decline of American economy,and the country is still commanding the heights in terms ofscientific excellence, technological innovation, economy, education and information technology. It also finds that the general American hegemony remains unchanged,and the country has the capability of coping with the challenges it now faces.This paper makes an analysis of the underlying reasons why American economy has recovered so rapidly from the financial crisis. It finally looks at the policy changes and adjustments which Obama Administration has made to solve the problem of deficits and debts, revitalize economy and strengthen technological innovation.