TPP下一步可能动向及对亚太区域经济治理的影响

Possible Trends of the TPP and Its Influence on Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Governance

TPP谈判各方于2015年10月初达成协议,12个成员国承诺将在贸易投资自由化和便利化方面展开全方位合作,塑造高标准的21世纪区域贸易安排。目前,TPP面临美国国内两党反对以及其他成员国能否有效履约等若干挑战,短期内通过前景渺茫。TPP能否最终生效,不仅关系到当前全球最高规格的自由贸易协定(FTA)能否正式进入亚太区域经济治理体系,也关系到美国试图稳固全球和区域经济主导权的实际成效和影响。文章将系统分析TPP争议焦点以及能否生效、扩员等下一步可能动向,进而论述其对亚太区域经济治理的影响,并在此基础上提出中国对策。

The negotiators of TPP signed the agreement in October, 2015, and the 12 member countries have promised to conduct comprehensive cooperation in trade and investment liberalization and their facilitation, in order to achieve a high-standard regional trade arrangement in the 21 st century. At present, the TPP is facing challenges such as opposition from the two major political parties in the United States, and partial implementation by other member countries. The short-term perspective for TPP is vague. Pragmatic functioning of TPP not only relates to the current global highest-standard FTA entrance into the Asia-Pacific regional economic governance system, but also relates to the UnitedStates' actual efforts to consolidate global and regional economic leadership.The article analyzes the debatable issues of TPP and the trends in terms of its effect-taking and enlargement, discusses its influence on Asia-Pacific regional economic governance, and puts forward China's countermeasures.