朝鲜拥核战略选择的重新评估及第五次核试验的影响——基于弃核决策的路径分析

Re-evaluation of North Korean Nuclear Strategy and the Influence of the Fifth Nuclear Test: Path Analysis of Denuclearization

朝鲜问题是朝鲜半岛局势的症结所在,其核心是朝核问题。朝鲜半岛的现状,更多形成于过渡时期。在这一时期,俄罗斯很长时间里无暇东顾,中国的自身政策更倾向于与美、日的合作性交往。朝鲜表现出的安全担忧越来越强烈,以至于不惜发展核武器。然而,一国发展核武器的原因是多方面的,从朝鲜核试验前后的挪腾与表现看,当前朝鲜拒绝弃核未必与安全因素有直接关系。因此,有必要从弃核决策的角度对朝鲜核问题进行重新评估,从而总结出影响其不断进行核试验的关键因素和影响。

The issue North Korea has become central in the Korean Peninsula,and its core is about the nuclear military development of the country. The status quo of the Peninsula was in fact formulated in the transition period. During the time, Russia was much concerned with its domesticity while China took up the diplomacy more cooperative with the United States and Japan. Then the security concerns of North Korea grew more intense. And its development of nuclear weapons has become the way out. However, the reasons are not solitary for its development of nuclear weapons, which can be discerned in the case of North Korea. The attitude that the country has now refused to abandon its military nuclear right may be interpreted otherwise in the current situation. It is now necessary to re-evaluate North Korean nuclear issue from the perspective of denuclearization.