基于分布滞后非线性模型的葫芦岛和丹东市环境温度对肾综合征出血热的效应研究

Hysteresis effect of temperature on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Huludao and Dandong, China: A study based on distributed lag non-linear model

目的探讨辽宁省丹东和葫芦岛市温度对肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病风险的滞后效应。方法收集2005年1月1日至2017年12月31日丹东和葫芦岛市报告的HFRS发病数据以及同期的气象数据,运用分布滞后非线性模型,控制长期趋势的影响,分析环境温度对HFRS发病的滞后效应。结果高温对葫芦岛市HFRS的发病效应从暴露开始即出现,并持续至12周,而对丹东市HFRS的影响在滞后8周左右才出现,并持续至12周,但均表现为正效应。低温对葫芦岛市HFRS发病的影响从暴露后即出现,并持续10周左右,而对丹东市HFRS的效应可持续至12周,但均表现为正效应。结论高温和低温均可增加2个城市HFRS的发病风险,温度对不同城市HFRS的滞后效应存在一定差异。

Objective To investigate the hysteresis effect of temperature on the risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Dandong and Huludao,Liaoning province,China.Methods The incidence data of HFRS reported in Dandong and Huludao from January 1,2005 to December 31,2017 and the meteorological data of the same period were collected.The distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the hysteresis effect of ambient temperature on the incidence of HFRS after controling the influence of long-term trend and.Results The high temperature effect on the incidence of HFRS in Huludao was present from the time of exposure to week 12 after exposure.However,it was present in Dandong from about week 8 to week 12 after exposure with a lag time of 8 weeks.The effect of low temperature on the incidence of HFRS in Huludao appeared immediately after exposure and disappeared at about week 10 after exposure.However,it also appeared appeared immediately in Dandong and lasted to week 12 after exposure.The high and low ambient temperatures both showed positive effect on the incidence of HFRS in the two cities.Conclusion Both high temperature and low temperature can increase the risk of HFRS in the two cities.The hysteresis effect of temperature on HFRS is different between the two cities.