河北省及其周边地区鼠疫风险评估体系的构建

Risk assessment system of plague in Hebei province and surrounding areas

目的建立河北省及其周边地区鼠疫风险评估体系,为制定有效的鼠疫防控措施提供科学依据。方法通过整理河北省及其周边地区既往的鼠疫防控资料及研究成果,利用德尔菲法确立鼠疫风险因素,确定风险因素的权重,建立鼠疫风险评估指标体系。非参数Kendall协调系数W检验用于检测专家意见的一致性。结果共有17名专家参加了2轮专家咨询,问卷回收率分别为94.12%和100%。通过2轮德尔菲专家问卷调查,最终建立了河北省及周边地区鼠疫风险评估体系,包括一级指标7个、二级指标40个。专家对指标的熟悉程度为0.888 9,标准差为0.657 5,专家权威指数为0.885 1,专家对指标比较熟悉,研究结果具有权威性。第1轮和第2轮专家咨询一级指标必要性、二级指标必要性和可获得性均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),专家意见协调性较好。结论构建的鼠疫风险评估体系符合河北省及周边鼠疫风险评估要求,可为鼠疫防控提供技术支持。

ObjectiveTo establish a plague risk assessment system in Hebei province and surrounding areas,and to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of plague.MethodsThe past data and research findings of plague prevention and control in Hebei province and surrounding areas were organized.The Delphi method was used to determine plague risk factors and their weight.A risk assessment index system was established.Non-parametric Kendall coordination coefficient W test was used for testing the consistency of expert opinions.Results A total of 17 experts participated in two rounds of consultation.The questionnaire recovery rates were 94.12%and 100%,respectively.A plague risk assessment system of Hebei province and surrounding areas,including 7 primary and 40 secondary indicators,was finally established after two rounds of Delphi expert questionnaire survey.The experts’familiarity with the indicators was scored as 0.888 9 with a standard deviation of 0.657 5.The expert authority index was 0.885 1.Experts were familiar with the indicators and presented an authoritative study.In the two rounds of expert consultation,the Kendall’s coefficient of concordance test indicated significant necessity of the primary and secondary indicators and significant availability of thesecondary indicators;expert opinions were well coordinated(all P<0.05).Conclusion The system established in this study meets the requirements of plague risk assessment in Hebei province and surrounding areas,which can provide technical support for prevention and control of plague.